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BUSINESS SCHOOL RESEARCH PROPOSAL TITLE TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN EAST AFRICA AND ITS IMPACT TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

BUSINESS SCHOOL RESEARCH PROPOSAL TITLE TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN EAST AFRICA AND ITS IMPACT TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. CASE STUDY DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA. COURSE CODE GM 603 COURSE NAME BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS COURSE INSTRUCTOR DR. ULINGETA MBAMBA Table of Contents TOC o 1-3 h z u HYPERLINK l _Toc519424016 1 INTRODUCTION PAGEREF _Toc519424016 h 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424017 1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM PAGEREF _Toc519424017 h 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424018 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM PAGEREF _Toc519424018 h 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424019 1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES PAGEREF _Toc519424019 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424020 1.3.1 GENERAL OBJECTIVE PAGEREF _Toc519424020 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424021 1.3.2 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES PAGEREF _Toc519424021 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424022 1.4 JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY PAGEREF _Toc519424022 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424023 1.4.1 TO THE RESEARCHER PAGEREF _Toc519424023 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424024 1.4.2 TO THE PUBLIC PAGEREF _Toc519424024 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424025 1.4.3 TO THE GOVERNMENT PAGEREF _Toc519424025 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424026 1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY PAGEREF _Toc519424026 h 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424027 1.6 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY PAGEREF _Toc519424027 h 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424028 2 LITERATURE REVIEW. PAGEREF _Toc519424028 h 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424029 3 RESEARCH. METHODOLOGY PAGEREF _Toc519424029 h 9 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424030 3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN. PAGEREF _Toc519424030 h 9 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424031 3.2 AREA OF STUDY PAGEREF _Toc519424031 h 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424032 3.3 NATURE OF DATA AND INFORMATION. PAGEREF _Toc519424032 h 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424033 3.4 DATA COLLECTION METHODS. PAGEREF _Toc519424033 h 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424034 3.4.1 DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENTS. PAGEREF _Toc519424034 h 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424035 3.4.2 SAMPLING TECHNIQUES/ PROCEDURE. PAGEREF _Toc519424035 h 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424036 3.5 DATA ANALYSIS. PAGEREF _Toc519424036 h 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424037 4 APPENDICES PAGEREF _Toc519424037 h 11 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424038 4.1 WORKPLAN PAGEREF _Toc519424038 h 11 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424039 4.2 BUDGET PAGEREF _Toc519424039 h 12 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424040 4.3 QUESTIONNAIRE PAGEREF _Toc519424040 h 12 HYPERLINK l _Toc519424041 5 REFERENCES PAGEREF _Toc519424041 h 14 ABBREVIATIONS SUMATRA-Surface and Marine Transport authority CEP-Centre for Economic Prosperity DART-Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit CTI-Confederation of Tanzania Industries TPA-Tanzania Ports Authority TANROADS-Tanzania Roads Agency NCHRP-National Cooperative Highway Research Program UWABA- Umma wa Waendesha baiskeli Dar es salaam DIMA-Dar es salaam independent Transport Management Authority TITLE TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN EAST AFRICA AND ITS IMPACT TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CASE STUDY DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM Traffic congestion has been defined as the travel time or delay in excess of that normally incurred under light or free -flow travel conditions. Traffic congestion usually results when the road system is unable to accommodate traffic at an adequate speed, there are conflicts among the different types of traffic (cars, trucks, buses, cyclists or pedestrians), and traffic controls are used improperly or are not coordinated to optimize throughput along a corridor.1 Traffic jams in East Africas fastest growing cities are increasingly getting worse and are now being experienced in almost all major roads and routes such as in Dar es Salaam, Nairobi, Kigali and Entebbe. Until very recently, congestion was mainly during rush hours in the mornings and evenings when people were going to work or returning home. However, today, with more than 120,000 private vehicles plying the citys roads daily, jams are even there on weekends, holidays and during road constructions and maintainance2 In Dar es Salaam, available statistics show that about 6,000 commuter buses carry only 43 per cent of the citys daily travelers3. A survey conducted by the Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) established that traffic jams are eating up to 20 per cent of annual profits of most businesses4. While the problem of congestion affects all sectors of economy, companies that deal with the supply of fast moving consumer goods such as beverages, edible oil, bread and soap constantly find it very hard to timely make deliveries incurring extra costs in the process. The traffic jams are also disadvantaging the city in terms of establishing itself as the hub of commerce and business in the Great Lakes region. Coupled with the cargo handling inefficiencies at the Dar es Salaam port, the congestion matter gives Kenya an upper hand for businesses, seeking to establish a presence in the region. Other effects attributed to traffic congestion include increased vehicle operating costs, including increased fuel consumption, costs related to time and loss of productivity increased costs of congestion-related accidents and higher emissions attributable to congestion. Causes of traffic congestion. A primary cause is the imbalance between transportation demand and available capacity of the transportation system to accommodate traffic. Other important causes are defined by urban areas Land use and socio-economic characteristics (i.e., the distribution of urban activities, the extent of sprawl, etc.) Traffic peaking characteristics (i.e., the time of day, mode, and route-specific peaking of traffic and the inability of the transportation system to adapt to such peaks are major causes of congestion) Treatment of incident and accidents (including road maintenance, the weather, etc.)and The failure in the use of traffic lights around the Dar es Salaam city. Though there are numerous traffic lights in the city, research shows that they have failed to control the traffic flow, and even blamed for increasing traffic congestion Relationship between traffic volume, speed and congestion. Classical traffic flow theory suggests that as traffic volumes increase, speeds tend to drop. The parameters defining this relationship dictate the rate at which the reduction occurs. For example, modern theory suggests that the speed reduction may be quite negligible until the volume approaches the capacity of the road section, at which point the speed reduction is quite severe and breakdown, or congestion, occurs. Following a review of traffic flow theory, the literature review described how different models quantified the relationship5 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM There is high traffic congestion in East Africas fastest growing cities which in some extent hinder the smooth economic development in this region. Traffic jams have been a big problem in Dar es Salaam city, Tanzania, handicapping its establishment as the hub of commerce and business in the Great Lakes region. This slows down the rate of economic development to the city and the country at large. A survey conducted by the Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) under Mr Husein Kamote, the director of Policy and Research of the confederation established that traffic jams are eating up to 20 per cent of annual profits of most businesses. While the problem of congestion affects all sectors of economy, companies that deal with the supply of fast moving consumer goods such as beverages, edible oil, bread and soap constantly find it very hard to timely make deliveries incurring extra costs in the process. Mr. Cosmas Takule, the former chief executive officer of the Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit (Dart) agency once said that about Sh4 billion loss was being incurred every day in the city due to the persistent jams. That amounts to about Sh120 billion in a month that adds up to around Sh1.44 trillion per annum. 4 Thursday, 25 March 2010 1055 Thecitizen.com 5 By Delcan Corporation, March 1999 report on traffic congestion impact on Co2 6 Thursday, 25 March 2010 1055 Thecitizen.com Most researchers have identified causes, effects and solutions to this problem. But no one has tried to show the interrelationship between population, income and traffic congestion. Therefore, this study will seek to explain this interrelationship. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES GENERAL OBJECTIVE To analyze the impact of traffic congestion in Dar es salaam in relation to the economic development in Tanzania. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES To explore the causes of traffic congestion in Dar es salaam. To identify the effects of traffic congestion to the economy. To search for the possible solutions to the problem. JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY TO THE RESEARCHER The study is a partial fulfillment of the requirements of the award for Master of Business Administration at The University of Dar es Salaam Business School. The study is also expected to expand the researchers knowledge on the impact of traffic congestion to the economic development of Tanzania. TO THE PUBLIC The research will act as an educating tool to the public especially for drivers, pedestrians and all other road users. It will enable the public to know the possible causes, impacts and suggested solutions for the problem of traffic congestion in relation to stagnation of our economy. This might induce and encourage people to think for and adopt some suggested solutions in order to overcome and combat this problem. TO THE GOVERNMENT By referring to this research, the government will use the suggested solutions in their strategies especially those which are aiming at reducing or minimizing this chronic problem in the growing cities like Dar es Salaam. For example, the government may formulate a policy on truck traffic as part of a strategy to involve truck routes, designated loading areas and break bulk terminals, since efficient urban roads freight distribution is essential if public transportation is to be improved in Dar-es-Salaam. SCOPE OF THE STUDY We will concentrate to the Impact of traffic congestion in Dar es Salaam in relation to the economic development in Dar es Salaam. Data will be collected from the business experts, civil servants, and road agencies such as TANROADS, SUMATRA, TPA, The Aviation authority and the Ministry of Infrastructure. LIMITATION OF THE STUDY When a researcher takes this study his success may be hindered by the research approach used. The researcher expects to use the inferential approach as one of the alternatives in the quantitative approach, so the data obtained from a small sample will be used to infer characteristics or relationships of the whole population, (Kothari 2004, p.58). Sampling error decreases with the increase in the size of the sample the researcher is compelled to do so, so as to match with the limited time and funds made available to him/her. Therefore, there is a need to seek for additional financial support from the relevant authorities like SUMATRA, TANROADS and the Ministry of Infrastructure. CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW. This part of study will focus upon defining traffic congestion, and its impact upon economic development in Dar es Salaam. The aim of this part is to define the relationship and describe the techniques and models that are used to characterize it. To start, what is meant by the term traffic congestion Traffic congestion usually results when the road system is unable to accommodate traffic at an adequate speed, there are conflicts among the different types of traffic (cars, trucks, buses, cyclists or pedestrians), and traffic controls are used improperly or are not co-ordinated to optimize throughput along a corridor. A workable definition of traffic congestion is provided by the NCHRP Report Quantifying Congestion (National Co-operative Highway Research Program, 1997) which defined two terms Congestion is travel time or delay in excess of that normally incurred under light or free flow travel conditions and Unacceptable congestion is travel time or delay in excess of an agreed upon normal. The agreed-upon normal may vary by type of transportation facility, travel mode, geographic location and time of day. The literature review identified several causes. A primary cause is the imbalance between transportation demand and available capacity of the transportation system to accommodate traffic. Other important causes are defined by an urban areas land use and socio-economic characteristics i.e., the distribution of urban activities. Traffic congestion is normally common during morning and evening weekday peak periods, it may also occur during weekends, holiday periods, before or after cultural events or during road construction and maintenance Several highly adverse impacts are attributed to traffic congestion. These include increased vehicle operating costs, including increased fuel consumption costs related to time and loss of productivity increased costs of congestion-related accidents and higher emissions attributable to congestion. Economic development refers to the general improvement and growth of the economy that encompasses the improvement in living standard of people in social, political, cultural, economic and psychological aspects. Sufficient social services such as transport and health increase the chances for the improvement in living condition. Traffic congestion have adverse impacts on economic development such as loss of productivity, increased vehicle operating costs and including increased fuel consumption. Various theories have been developed to explain this problem as follows Relationship between traffic volume, speed and congestion. Classical traffic flow theory suggests that as traffic volumes increase, speeds tend to drop. The parameters defining this relationship dictate the rate at which the reduction occurs. For example, modern theory suggests that the speed reduction may be quite negligible until the volume approaches the capacity of the road section, at which point the speed reduction is quite severe and breakdown, or congestion, occurs. Following a review of traffic flow theory, the literature review described how different models quantified the relationship. The challenge of promoting and sustaining an involving transport system in urban areas is a matter of utmost complexity which requires innovative research and action initiatives. Many researchers, prompted by their personal experience of problem of traffic congestion in Dar es Salaam, have tried to investigate and give coherent picture of public transport in Dar es Salaam. A research work carried out by the a team of four researcher namely Dr.Ahmad Kanyama from Royal institute of technology, StockholmDr.Annika Carlsson kanyama from Environmental strategies research department, FOI,Sockholm Prof.Anna Lisa linden from the department of sociology, Lund university Dr.lupala from the department of urban and region planning from university of land and Architectural studies ( currently ARDHI university), revealed that the transport in Dar es Salaam has failed in almost every aspect and the problem of traffic congestion in all major routes is caused by large number of small buses and poor condition of roads, but the study has remained silent to the remedy for this cause. The study has revealed various solutions as participation of public in city planning, designing policy instruments for change which includes information, economic, administrative and physical instruments (Linden, 2001, Linden Carlsson Kanyama, 2002). Data were collected through semi structured questionnaires and interviews from public transportation sector, regional traffic police women, student ,disabled and elderly. Averages of 62 household interviews were conducted in housing area. Sample from low and high income areas like Kawe and Mikocheni (Kinondoni), Ilala Boma and Tabata (Ilala) and Kurasini and Mbagala (Temeke). Centre for Economic Prosperity (CEP) report published in May 2010 following their findings from their survey with various citizens and stakeholders revealed the following solutions to traffic congestion in Dar es Salaam(1) Having different vacation periods, (2)introducing passenger friendly bus transport,(3) construction at night or off peak hours, (4)decentralization of public offices,(5) restriction of cargo traffic and (6)restriction of traffic entry points . These were proposed by Thadeo C,Ntambala ,Telecommunication engineer living in united state of America. (7)Promoting of cycling proposed by Elaine Baker Gun secretary of Umma wa Waendesha Baiskeli (UWABA) Study conducted by Confederation of Tanzania Industry (CTI) that was published on 25th March 2010 by Citizen newspaper (article by Damas Kanyabwoya) revealed that the traffic jam are eating up to 20 of annual profit of most businesses .The study has revealed several causes of traffic congestion in Dar es Salaam including poor planning of the city, daily increase of vehicles, existence of small buses in the city centre, poor condition of feeder roads and concentration of commercial and government services in the city centre. The following were the solution suggested by the study barring of less than 20 passenger commuter buses in the city centre, construction of alternative roads and flyovers at different junctions as well as undertaking DART project (fast moving buses) and formation of independent authority to manage Dar es salaam overwhelmed infrastructure net work (DIMA) and its budget is approximated to 5.6 trillion. The study has not explained on how DART project and DIMA are going to be established, no measure has taken to train road users as a preliminary step to control the problem of traffic congestion in Dar es Salaam. This study will try to investigate the following ways as possible solutions use of railway as an alternative transport, effective plan implementation and flexible budget, establishment of an along the sea route , restructuring of settlement plan in suburbs and in existing area, this will help to increase the space to allow the construction of infrastructural facilities. CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH. METHODOLOGY The section explains the overall approach to the research process. It explains the research design prevent data collection, procedures, data processing and analysis techniques that will be employed in this study. RESEARCH DESIGN. In this study quantitative and qualitative research approaches will be employed whereby the problems of traffic congestion and its impact on economic development is studied and analyzed from the collected data. The results obtained will be interpreted and presented through the report and qualitative data will be collected through focus group discussion to complement the quantitative data collected through questionnaires. AREA OF STUDY This study will be conducted in Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania. Data will be collected from main roads and routes specifically in junctions areas. NATURE OF DATA AND INFORMATION. Both primary data and secondary data will be taken into account by our study. DATA COLLECTION METHODS. Primary data will be obtained using questionnaire, interview and observation while secondary data will be obtained from the internet, journals, news papers and publications from the relevant authorities. DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENTS. Semi- structured questionnaires will be employed.(ref. appendices). The type of interview that will be used is face to face interview with different groups of people like drivers, civil servants and students. The type observation to be used is participatory observation (direct observation) where researchers are part of the population. SAMPLING TECHNIQUES/ PROCEDURE. In this study the application of probability and non probability sampling will be used. Specifically stratified random sampling will be used. Drivers will be interviewed from different bus stations. Academic staff from various departments in the University of Dar es salaam. Administrative officers from TANROADS, Ministry of Infrastructures and SUMATRA and other special groups like pupils, elderly (pensioners) and disabled. DATA ANALYSIS. Data analysis will be carried out qualitatively as explained below. Explanation building, which entails attempting to build relationship and implications from observed phenomenon. Using comparisons that may be achieved by observing patterns of data specifically when analyzing case studies. Analyzing different scenarios developed by other researchers from which we will come up with opinions, suggestions, and/ or recommendations. CHAPTER 4 APPENDICES WORKPLAN ActivityActivity time Further literature review3 weeksPreparation of tools to be used in data collection4 weeksAssessment, identification and training research assistant 1 WeekPreparation and conduct of a weekly field survey 8 weeksData processing and analysis3 weeksReport writing presentation and production4 weeksResearch paper submission1 weekTotals weeks24 weeks BUDGET NoItemAmount per ItemAmount in TZS1Stationeries Ream @ 5000 1 Flash disk 38,000 Pens @ 200 Pencils @ 50 4 Files @ 1500 60,1502Meals and accommodation84 days @ 6000504,0003Traveling expenses 30 days @ 50015,0004Typing, printing and binding50 pages @ 100080,0005Transport expenses (to and from) home to field station 90 days @ 100090,0006Communication expensesN/A25,0007Correction of printed research paper 6 times @ 600036,000TOTAL810,150 QUESTIONNAIRE What means of transport are you using A. Public transport B. Private transport What is the average distance from home to working place A. Below 2km B.3-6km C. Above 6km What is the average time used from home to your working place A.2hours B. 1hour C. below 1hour D. above 2hours Is the time relevant to distance Yes ( No If no give reason Explain Which kind of trucks causing more traffic congestion A. Mass transit cars B. Mini buses C. Trucks D. Others What do you think is the main reason for traffic congestion A. High population B. Poor infrastructure C. Others What economic sector is mostly affected by the traffic congestion A. Business sector B. agriculture sector C. industrial sector How did you know that traffic congestion is a problem in Tanzania A. through advertisement B. through my friends C. through my experience What you think will be appropriate solution for traffic congestion Explanation.. .. .. REFERENCES Kombe .W. Kyess and Lupala .S.( 2003) Report on Urban public transport. Delcan Corporation, (March 1999)Report on congestion impact on carbon dioxide emission in Canada. Kanyama A et al,(2005) Analysis of the public transportation in Dar es salaam, Tanzania from an institution coordination perspective. UN-Habitat,1996.An Urbanizing World, Global report on human settlements .Oxford University press ,Oxford. UN-Habitats (1993) . Provision of travel way space for urban public in developing countries. Pendeka S.V (September 2005) Journal on Analyst days in Dubai Transport in Middle East Africa. Kombe N.J (1995) Formal and Informal land management in Tanzania. HYPERLINK http//www.worldbank.org/afr/ssatpwww.worldbank.org/afr/ssatp By Delcan Corporation, March 1999 report on traffic congestion impact on Co2 Emissions in Canada. 2 By Damas Kanyabwoya,25 March 2010 , The Citizen, Traffic congestion, Dar es salaam 3 By Damas Kanyabwoya,25 March 2010 , The Citizen, Traffic congestion, Dar es salaam PAGE MERGEFORMAT 13 Page Ielv7nmlHH)BIv70J dj WUMyH33Gm/
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